Projecting Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Philippines Through 2050: A Scenario-Based Analysis of Production, Land Use, and Regional Supply
Author: Meribeth A. Ministerio, Rodolfo M. Romarate II, Ma. Rizalia Y. Teves, Josefina M. Tabudlong, Peter D. Suson, Glenn B. Gregorio, Ricardo A. Razal, Hilly Ann Roa-Quiaoit
Country: Philippines
Volume & Issue: Volume 1, Issue 1, April 2026 - June 2026
Page No.: 41-52
DOI.: https://doi.org/10.63941/eupij.2026.1.1.05
Publication Date: June 2, 2026
Abstract:
The Philippines stands out as both one of the world’s largest rice producers and importers, presenting a significant challenge in feeding its growing population through 2050. This study explores the future of rice production, sufficiency, and resilience in the country by combining three analytical methods: (1) regional production trend analysis using Philippine Statistics Authority data from 2013 to 2025 across all 17 regions; (2) forecasting production, area harvested, and yield through 2050 using Holt’s double exponential smoothing; and (3) assessing regional self-sufficiency under land conversion scenarios. Between 2013 and 2023, national palay production rose modestly from 18.44 million to 20.06 million metric tons, while the harvested area stayed steady at about 4.7 million hectares. Yield improvements from 3.89 to 4.17 MT/ha drove production gains. However, rice imports surged from 0.89 million MT in 2017 to an estimated 4.68 million MT in 2024, pushing the import dependency ratio to 28%, it’s highest since 1988. Projections show production could reach 22.5 million MT by 2050, yet this falls short of the projected milled rice demand of 16.5 million MT, with a baseline production deficit of 2.4 million MT. Accounting for ongoing land conversion, this deficit could expand to 8 million MT, raising import dependency to 48%. Regionally, by 2050 only three of sixteen regions will remain self-sufficient, with Central Luzon traditionally the rice granary dropping below 100%, while eleven regions face deficits. Without major farming and land protection improvements, the Philippines will grow more import-dependent with less resilient food production.
Keywords:
Rice Sufficiency; Philippines; Exponential Smoothing; Food Security; Import Dependency; Land Conversion; Rice Tariffication Law; Production Forecast; Regional Self Sufficiency
